The box office is headed for a record-breaking sewing bee over the long Memorial Day weekend.
According to tracking, the combination of Disney’s live-action redo of Lilo & Stitch and Paramount’s Tom Cruise-starrer Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning could mark another Barbenheimer moment for both Hollywood and hungry theater owners.
Lilo & Stitch is headed for a four-day domestic debut of $120 million, one of the best showings ever for Disney’s live-action reimaginings, according to those with access to data from leading firm the National Research Group. The leading research firm also gives ranges in addition to a target number; in this case, it is $110 million to $130 million.
M:I, meanwhile, is on course for a franchise-best $80 million debut, which would more than make up for the lackluster $54.7 million bow of the previous film in the series, as well as zoom past the record $61.2 million three-day launch of Mission: Impossible — Fallout. NRG’s range is $72 million to $88 million. Keep in mind, Memorial Day weekend is a four-day gross. Also, both Disney and Paramount have three weeks to unleash their biggest marketing pushes yet.
If tracking proves correct, the combination of the two films could deliver the biggest Memorial Day weekend in history in terms of overall ticket sales, not adjusted for inflation. The crown currently belongs to the $306 million in ticket sales collected in 2013 when Fast & Furious 6 zoomed to $117 million, followed by The Hangover Part III with $50 million.
And it would also mark the best showing for two Memorial Day titles going up against each other. In 2007, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End opened to $140 million over the holiday frame, followed by Shrek the Third with $67 million.
There’s still no official moniker for the mash-up for Stitch & M:I as there was for Barbenheimer (Stitch on a Mission? Stitchion?), but for Cruise, it’s a coming-full-circle moment.
In late July 2023, when the box office was still struggling to recover from the pandemic and grappling with the impact of the strikes, the combination of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan‘s Oscar-winning Oppenheimer ignited moviegoing (studio execs always say that rising tides lift all boats). Despite opening on the same weekend, Barbie dazzled with a $162 million debut, while Nolan’s movie took in $82.4 million, a virtually unheard of number for an adult biographical drama.
Cruise — who has become Hollywood’s theatrical ambassador in the post-pandemic era — himself urged consumers to turn out for Oppenheimer and Barbie, even as he had his own movie to promote, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One. The tentpole, which had opened two weeks earlier, ended up being a major disappointment, with Cruise and director Christopher McQuarrie going back to the drawing board and renaming the film for next installment, rather than calling it Dead Reckoning Part Two.
Their efforts appear to be paying off, according to tracking. Materials for Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning is resonating with its target audience in a major way. Ditto for Lilo & Stitch, about an irresistible dog-like alien named Stitch who befriends a lonely girl. It’s popping with families, teenage girls and younger woman who grew up on the 2002 animated film. That’s welcome news for Disney’s live-action efforts after Snow White stumbled earlier this year.
This weekend, Disney and Marvel Studios kick off the summer box office with Thunderbolts*.
