A 90-day tariff agreement between the US and China may set the stage for a broader recovery of stock and cryptocurrency markets, as investors look ahead to a potential tax relief package.
The White House announced on May 12 that the two countries will reduce their respective tariffs to 10% for an initial 90-day period beginning May 14 — a 24% cut from current levels.
Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both governments are aligned on avoiding further economic decoupling.
“The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent said. “What has occurred with these very high tariffs was an equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade. We want more balance in trade.”
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The constructive tone of the negotiations, along with the 90-day suspension of additional tariffs, removes the risk of “sudden re-escalation,” which may help altcoins and traditional stock markets follow Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recovery, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.
“Bitcoin is already trading close to its all-time highs,” Barthere told Cointelegraph. “However, with the latest easing in trade tensions, it now appears that altcoins, US equities, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) are well-positioned for a catch-up rally.”
She noted that Bitcoin has outperformed risk assets in recent months due to its insulation from tariff-related risks.
“I also expect the US dollar to perform strongly against prior safe-haven currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen, reflecting improved global risk sentiment,” Barthere added.
Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance for crypto and stocks to find their bottom by June, with their price recovery depending on the outcome of trade negotiations.
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Tax relief could amplify rally
Bitcoin is currently 4.8% away from recapturing its all-time high of over $109,800 recorded in January 2025, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.
“There is potential for risk assets to move beyond the January peak levels if we see a generous tax cut package materialize,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding:
“This would need to go beyond merely extending the expiring tax cuts, and include additional income tax reductions as well as corporate tax cuts on top.”
She noted that Bessent hinted such a package could be unveiled by mid-July, which would act as a “significant additional catalyst” for the markets.
The constructive trade negotiations, paired with emerging technical chart patterns, have spurred analyst calls for a Bitcoin rally to $150,000 depending on the outcome of an emerging bull flag pattern on the weekly chart.
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