The Memorial Day box office is already delivering in a major way and the long holiday weekend has barely begun.
Disney’s live-action redo Lilo & Stitch and Tom Cruise‘s final Mission: Impossible movie, from Paramount and Skydance, both did sizeable business in Thursday previews and are now guaranteed to fuel the biggest Memorial Day weekend of all time in terms of overall ticket sales, based on early Friday returns. Those returns also show Lilo & Stitch blowing away all expectations with a record-smashing domestic debut of $170 million to $180 million, while Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning is on course for a series-best $78 million opening.
Lilo grossed a huge $14.5 million in previews, the largest preview gross of the year to date and a Memorial Day record for Disney’s live-action studio after besting The Little Mermaid ($10.3 million) and Aladdin ($7 million), not adjusted for inflation. In terms of Disney’s larger film empire, it also beat Memorial Day entry Solo: A Star Wars Story ($14.1 million). And overall, it is the seventh-biggest preview gross of any PG title, including Disney’s recent animated blockbuster Moana 2 ($13.8 million)
Three weeks ago, Lilo & Stitch was tracking to open to $120 million. On Thursday, that number had grown to $165 million, a jaw-dropping gross that would, in an ironic twist, see Lilo & Stitch supplant Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick ($160 million) as the biggest Memorial Day opener of all time, not adjusted for inflation. That’s not the only irony: Cruise-starrer Minority Report barely beat the original animated Lilo & Stitch when they opened opposite each other in June 2002.
Stitch isn’t just drawing interest from families; it’s popping big time among teenage girls and younger women — i.e., Gen Z and younger Millennials — who grew up on the first movie and resulting TV show about a Hawaiian girl with a fraught family life who adopts an adorable, albeit trouble-making, dog-like alien. Box office pundits say the nostalgic factor is running high, just as it did among Millennials and Gen Z’ers for Disney’s live-action Aladdin, which made $1.1 billion in global ticket sales after getting families, teens and younger adults. Rideback produced both Lilo and 2019’s Aladdin.
The live-action Lilo & Stitch was originally intended to to go straight to Disney+, helping to explain its modest $100 million production budget. It has a current Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 72 percent. (Both Lilo and M:I presently have a RT audience score of 93 percent.)
Final Reckoning set its own preview record in earning a franchise-best $8.3 million, ahead of Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One ($7 million) and Mission: Impossible — Fallout ($6 million.)
The film, with a current RT critics score of 80 percent, is expected to more than make up for the lackluster $54.7 million bow of Dead Reckoning, as well as supplant the $61.2 million three-day launch of Fallout to set a new franchise opening record by a mile. M:I movies have never been big openers since diehard fans are usually older adults.
A major challenge in terms of Final Reckoning‘s financial success is its $400 million net budget before marketing — making it one of the most expensive films ever made — although Paramount insiders note that each new installment increases the value of the entire library, including a spike in home entertainment sales and rentals of previous titles.
The two movies are expected to fuel the biggest Memorial Day of all time in terms of ticket sales. While the mash-up isn’t expected to be quite the same cultural phenomenon that Barbenheimer was in July 2023, the potent combo of the two movies can’t be ignored (as for a moniker, how about “Stitchin: Impossible”?)
Overseas, Lilo & Stitch is likewise going up against Final Reckoning.
Lilo has earned $26.7 million in its initial two days from its first 41 markets. In a number of territories, it has scored the highest opening day of the year so far, including in China, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, France and Italy. Paramount hasn’t yet reported international numbers for Final Reckoning.
May 23, 4: 10 p.m.: Updated with revised weekend estimates based on Friday returns.
